Chris Robinson is investment director of Premier Miton's model portfolio service. He joined the company in August from Tatton where he worked for seven years, latterly as head of its investment specialist team. He started his career at Duncan Lawrie Private Banking.
Which fund in your portfolios are you most pleased with?
Eastspring Japan Smaller Companies, managed by Max Godwin. Its small cap value tilt has driven significant outperformance over the last five years. Its approach identifies large deviations of stocks relative to own history such as price-earnings, price to book and dividend yield. Its relatively high conviction has led to alpha generation in a market that has been boosted by positive sentiment.
Which was your worst asset allocation call and what did you learn from it?
Overweight UK, underweight US in 2020 – Whilst valuation is very important and remains a major aspect of our allocation approach, the macroeconomic momentum combined with rate of earnings growth are key factors for markets in general.
Right now, China or India?
China, it appears to be the turning point for policy; monetary and fiscal. Its valuation is attractive and if we get confirmation of significant fiscal expenditure, combined with lower dollar denominated debt costs, it could take off. India is expensive and could be at the end of the momentum run.
Biggest fund red flag?
A move away from a successful process without speaking with investors first. There is nothing wrong with moving away from process, yet it’s important a manager knows its position and that it won’t unsettle existing investors.
What makes your process different?
We are unconstrained and flexible. We are willing to back new approaches and strategies when many need to see minimum track records and asset levels.
What do you think is your most interesting tactical call at the moment?
Overweight emerging markets – a turnaround in China, just over 20 per cent of an emerging market exposure is China, and this could provide a significant boost to the rest of the Asian exposure. It is unloved and undervalued, providing significant opportunity. Lower cost of dollar denominated debt could boost this significantly. There is no surprise in our opinion that stimulus was announced after the start of a rate cutting cycle.
Is there an asset class you are currently on the fence about (buying or selling)?
Europe – the economics look weak and continue to deteriorate, however usually when love and confidence for a market is low, opportunities present themselves - maybe easier monetary policy provides this.
What’s your hottest investment take?
UK government bonds are maybe not as at risk as the media are highlighting – the UK government has learnt from two years ago and can’t afford to make a mistake right now.
